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Saul Munn

Explaining Impact Markets

Let’s say you’re a billionaire. You want to have a flibbleflop, so you post a prize: Make a working flibbleflop — $1 billion. There begins a global effort to build working flibbleflops, and you see some teams of brilliant people starting to work on flibbleflop engineering. But it doesn’

Map of the prediction market and forecasting community

Hello! No big essay or anything. I built a map of the prediction market and forecasting ecosystem, inspired by similar maps of related fields. I want a good reference for people who want to get into the prediction market & forecasting community, so I made one. Take a peek: predictionmarketmap.

Link Collection: Impact Markets

0. Readme (or don't) * This is not a literature review. I'll vouch for links with an associated archived link, author name, and summary, but not the others. * Last updated: Dec 2023 1. Overviews * Impact Markets: The Annoying Details (a), Scott Alexander * Comprehensive description of impact markets,

Solving Two-Sided Adverse Selection with Prediction Market Matchmaking

0: Navigation I’m aiming for a reader who knows what “prediction markets” and “adverse selection” are, who likes the first and not the second, and who enjoys systems that have neatly aligned incentives. For a primer on prediction markets, read Scott Alexander’s FAQ. If you’re already familiar

quotes

when i come across good quotes, i write them down. the below are those i collected between october 2022 and november 2023. It is much, much easier to pick out a way in which a system is sub-optimal, than it is to implement or run that system at anything like

questions to ask people

* of all the things that you do, what do you think you do best? what do you think you do worst? * of all the things that i do, what am i worst at? * where do you go to find people who think well? * what do you want? * what do you

Memorize Translations Between Odds and Percentages

Edit 4/1/2024: I no longer use this deck. Since publishing this, I think I've gotten better at learning how to use Anki effectively — I endorse some better version of this deck, whereby you memorize translations between odds and percentages, but I don't endorse this

A Better Multiple-Choice Test

Multiple-choice test scores are meant to reflect a student’s knowledge. Students estimate the right answer for each question; students who understand the content estimate the right answer more often than students who don’t. But multiple-choice tests force students to be 100% confident in one answer and 0% confident

methods for producing solutions

1. ask chatgpt 2. google it, see if someone else has already solved the problem 1. if it’s something a research paper might have solved, try asking elicit 3. set a 5-minute timer, and think about the problem for 5 minutes. don’t think for 1-2 mins then go