Rowing vs steering
Alex Lawsen used a great metaphor on the 80k After Hours podcast:[1] [1:38:14] …you’re rowing a boat on your own, and you’re trying to get somewhere, and you’ve got some map that you need to look at to see where you’re going, I
More issues
quotes 2
when i come across good quotes, i write them down. the below are those i collected between my last quotes post and the day i published this — november 19, 2023 through august 5, 2024.
[T]he work that needs to be done is not a finite list of tasks, it
Come to Manifest 2024 (June 7-9 in Berkeley)
This is a cross-post of a piece I wrote for the Manifold Substack; here's a link to the original post. I'm helping to run this, and I would be delighted to see you there!
TLDR
Manifold is hosting a festival for prediction markets: Manifest 2024! We’
Things You’re Allowed to Do: University Edition
This post is not titled “Things You Should Do,” because these aren’t (necessarily) things you should do. Many people should not do many of the items on this list, and some of the items are exclusive, contradictory, or downright the reverse of what you should do. If your reaction
Explaining Impact Markets
Let’s say you’re a billionaire. You want to have a flibbleflop, so you post a prize:
Make a working flibbleflop — $1 billion.
There begins a global effort to build working flibbleflops, and you see some teams of brilliant people starting to work on flibbleflop engineering. But it doesn’
Map of the prediction market and forecasting community
Hello!
No big essay or anything. I built a map of the prediction market and forecasting ecosystem, inspired by similar maps of related fields. I want a good reference for people who want to get into the prediction market & forecasting community, so I made one.
Take a peek: predictionmarketmap.
Link Collection: Impact Markets
0. Readme (or don't)
* This is not a literature review. I'll vouch for links with an associated archived link, author name, and summary, but not the others.
* Last updated: Dec 2023
1. Overviews
* Impact Markets: The Annoying Details (a), Scott Alexander
* Comprehensive description of impact markets,
Solving Two-Sided Adverse Selection with Prediction Market Matchmaking
0: Navigation
I’m aiming for a reader who knows what “prediction markets” and “adverse selection” are, who likes the first and not the second, and who enjoys systems that have neatly aligned incentives. For a primer on prediction markets, read Scott Alexander’s FAQ. If you’re already familiar
quotes
when i come across good quotes, i write them down. the below are those i collected between october 2022 and november 2023.
It is much, much easier to pick out a way in which a system is sub-optimal, than it is to implement or run that system at anything like
questions to ask people
* of all the things that you do, what do you think you do best? what do you think you do worst?
* of all the things that i do, what am i worst at?
* where do you go to find people who think well?
* what do you want?
* what do you