what did i do in my year off?

people sometimes ask me what i did in my year off; this doc is the canonical answer.

in rough order of how important they are to me/how much time i spent on them/how impactful they were for me/etc:

• Manifest

  • manifest 2023
  • manifest 2024
  professionalized version:

  Manifest is a festival/conference on predictions, markets, and mechanisms. It’s happened twice so far, and for both of them, I’ve been one of 2-3 central organizers. If you want to get the gist without diving into the details below, I’d suggest reading some of the kind words people said about Manifest 2024.

  The details:

  • Nominally, the events were about prediction markets, Tetlock-style forecasting, and mechanism design — but really, they aimed at a bundle of ideas that the attendees found interesting, ranging from genetic selection in embryos to financial journalism to cultural drift to ancient philosophy. Each event was about 2.5 days, and although Manifest ‘23 hosted ~250 attendees, Manifest ‘24 more-than-doubled in size to ~600 attendees.
  • Speakers included: Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Emmett Shear, Dylan Matthews, Scott Alexander, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Chris Best, Ben Mann, Tarek Mansour, Shayne Coplan, Zvi Mowshowitz, Byrne Hobart, Patrick McKenzie/patio11, and a lot more — you can see the full list of speakers for Manifest ‘23 and ‘24, and you can watch the talks they gave at Manifest on Youtube (‘23, ‘24).
  • Sponsors for ‘23 were Kalshi, Polymarket, and Sovereign — all of the ‘23 sponsors returned for ‘24, and we added Futuresearch, Lighthaven, Metaculus, Beeminder, Futuur, and PredictIt. Manifest ‘23 was centrally hosted by Manifold, and ‘24 was cohosted by Manifold & Manifund.
  • Manifest 2023 was written up by the New York Times (original, no paywall) and The Diff. For Manifest 2024, we kept a lot better track of all of the kind words people said about the event.

  For more details, see manifest.is. For references, talk to Austin Chen (my boss, cofounder of Manifund, and cofounder-emeritus of Manifold) and Rachel Weinberg (co-lead of Manifest ‘24, cofounder of Manifund).

• OPTIC

  • competitions in the bay area, boston, london, DC
  • built a masterdoc of forecasting club materials
  • helped some forecasting clubs get started
  professionalized version:

  I ran OPTIC alongside Jingyi and Tom. We built infrastructure for university-level forecasting, primarily by running in-person, intercollegiate forecasting tournaments. Competitors are given a handful of questions on real-world events ranging from geopolitics to celebrity twitter patterns to financial asset prices. They make probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of those events, and the best forecasters get thousands of dollars in cash prizes and access to exclusive internships**.**

  We also incubated & supported university forecasting clubs across the US and Europe.

  For more details, see opticforecasting.com. For references, talk to Juan Gil (my mentor, and a Research Manager for the ML Alignment & Theory Scholars Program).

• Manifund

  professionalized version:

  Manifund is a philanthropy built like a startup — Manifund writes code and runs programs to connect effective, impactful projects to funding.

  I was Manifund’s first “hire” (contracted for a few months, never a full employee), during which time I: wrote updates & retros; coordinated between funders, grantmakers, and project founders; helped kickstart the largest successful round of an impact market ever; and various other strategy & operations work.

• EAGs — led teams of volunteers (+ general ops/optimizing-y things) at:

  • EAG boston 2023
  • EAG bay area 2024
  • EAGx berkeley 2024
  • EAG boston 2024
  professionalized version:

  Effective Altruism Global (EAG & EAGx) conferences “bring together a wide network of people who have made helping others a core part of their lives. Speakers and attendees share new thinking and research; coordinate on important projects, and work together to solve pressing problems.”

  I’ve attended ~five EAG/x’s. For most of them, I volunteered as a team lead, managing 10-25 adult volunteers full-time for 2.5 days. I was the point-person overseeing tasks & shifts, training volunteers, coordinating with other teams, etc.

• started writing on a blog: Brass Tacks

  • published a bunch posts, a few i’m reflectively proud of — these ones in particular:

    • various lists of quotes:

• applied to transfer universities for undergrad; got into Berkeley

• travelled a really ridiculous amount

  slightly professionalized version:

  I've solo travelled, mostly for work, staying a few days or weeks at each place. Arranged my own logistics, rent, transport, budget (incl. funding mostly from work), etc. Travelled throughout Europe (Amsterdam, Prague, Paris), the UK (London, Cambridge, Oxford), Boston, LA, SF, Berkeley, NYC, rural New Hampshire, Miami, others.

• built a map of the forecasting & prediction market communities