Saul Munn

Feb
05

Things You’re Allowed to Do: University Edition

This post is not titled “Things You Should Do,” because these aren’t (necessarily) things you should do. Many people
5 min read
Jan
30

Explaining Impact Markets

Let’s say you’re a billionaire. You want to have a flibbleflop, so you post a prize: Make a
4 min read
Jan
12

Map of the prediction market and forecasting community

Hello! No big essay or anything. I built a map of the prediction market and forecasting ecosystem, inspired by similar
Dec
26

Link Collection: Impact Markets

0. Readme (or don't) * This is not a literature review. I'll vouch for links with an
2 min read
Nov
26

Solving Two-Sided Adverse Selection with Prediction Market Matchmaking

0: Navigation I’m aiming for a reader who knows what “prediction markets” and “adverse selection” are, who likes the
5 min read
Nov
19

quotes

when i come across good quotes, i write them down. the below are those i collected between october 2022 and
6 min read
Oct
08

questions to ask people

* of all the things that you do, what do you think you do best? what do you think you do
1 min read
Sep
19

Memorize Translations Between Odds and Percentages

Quickly translating between odds and percentages can be pretty helpful for intuitive forecasting. I made a flashcard deck to improve
Sep
08

A Better Multiple-Choice Test

Multiple-choice test scores are meant to reflect a student’s knowledge. Students estimate the right answer for each question; students
2 min read
Sep
05

methods for producing solutions

1. ask chatgpt 2. google it, see if someone else has already solved the problem 1. if it’s something
3 min read